In Evidence Explained, page 22, Elizabeth Mills has a section on Truth. It reads in part:
"Historical truth is physically pliable. We begin every research project the with the vision of that part of truth awaiting us at the rainbow's end. When we reached that end we have only a mound of dough ... The principles covered in the rest of this chapter ... are designed to help history's truthseekers leaven, knead, and bake their dough into something that, one hopes, will resemble probability."How to express that probability?