A recently published study of extra-pair paternity (EPP), often called NPEs, in the Netherlands and Belgium shows that historical rates were low overall (∼1%) but higher for urban populations than rural and for those with low socioeconomic status. Combining the two the rate was ∼5.9% among urban families with low socioeconomic status.
That means for the 15 couplings back to your great-great-grandparents there would be a 14% chance of at least one NPE at the overall average 1%, but a 60% chance for urban families with low socioeconomic status.
The table shows the probability a person has one or more NPEs, cumulatively back for a specified number of generations, starting with parents at one generation.
| Generations | Couplings | 1% NPE Rate | 2% NPE Rate | 6% NPE Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 35 |
| 4 | 15 | 14 | 26 | 60 |
| 5 | 31 | 27 | 47 | 85 |
| 6 | 63 | 47 | 72 | 98 |
| 7 | 127 | 72 | 92 | 100 |
| 8 | 255 | 92 | 99 | 100 |
| 9 | 511 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| 10 | 1023 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
1 comment:
INTERESTING. I will never forget an employee in my government department explaining to me that his wife had told me him one weekend during a fight they were having, that three of their four daughters were not his. Cheers anyway, BT
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