17 April 2020

O/T: How good was the COVID-19 forecast?

On 7 April the Public Health Agency of Canada issued this forecast for the epidemic on 16 April.
What happened. There were 30,092 cases — well inside the range predicted.
There were 1,193 deaths, that's 870 more than at the time the forecast was made. The 500-700 range for new deaths estimated was exceeded. However, a naive forecast of exponential growth in deaths based on those to 8 April gave an estimate of 1,581 deaths by 16 April.
While the actual number of deaths exceeded the PHAC forecast it did capture the slowing of the exponential growth toll.
With a record 183 deaths added on 16 April the epidemic is far from being under control.

According to the CBC the latest models from the Public Health Agency of Canadas now projecting between 1,200 and 1,620 pandemic deaths by 21 April.

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